A “concerning” economic indicator in the United States is currently pointing to an incoming recession after accurately predicting the last recessions over the last 75 years accurately.
According to the economics outlet Kobeissi Letter on the microblogging platform X (formerly known as Twitter), the US unemployment rate has now risen for four consecutive months, its longest growing streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
The rate has risen from 3.8% in March to 4.3% in July, its highest level since October 2021, and per the outlet every time the US unemployment rate rose for four months straight over the last 75 years, the country’s economy entered a recession.
This is concerning:
The US unemployment rate has risen for 4 consecutive months, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Over the last 75 years, every time unemployment rose for 4 consecutive months, the US economy entered recession.
The jobless rate has surged… pic.twitter.com/7P4Ghkwk3i— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 7, 2024
The Kobeissi Letter also pointed out that the US hires rate has declined last month to 3.4%, its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and below the pre-pandemic average of 3.8% as the “US labor market is contracting.”
The recession indicator comes shortly as another key recession indicator was triggered with the rise of the unemployment rate in the United States last month, leading to massive market sell-off that wiped $5 trillion off of equities.
The unemployment rate rise triggered the Sahm Rule, a recession indicator that measures the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate against its previous 12-month low, and is triggered when the rate rises 0.5% from that low.
The Sahm rule, according to Investopedia, is named after Claudia Sahm, a macroeconomist who worked at the Federal Reserve. According to Yahoo Finance, Sahm herself has said that the unique dynamics of the labor market after the COVID-19 pandemic, however, could render the rule less useful in calling a recession.
Sahm reportedly said that she doesn’t believe the US economy is currently in a recession over resilient consumer spending, but said that problems in the labor market are “worrisome” and that “we should be very concerned” as the could point to a recession in the near future.
Their poor performance comes after a prominent macroeconomist, Henrik Zeberg, reiterated his prediction of a looming recession that will be preceded by a final surge in key market sectors, but can potentially be the worst the market has seen since 1929, the worst bear market in Wall Street’s history.
Notably the Hindenburg Omen, a technical indicator designed to identify potential stock market crashes, has started flashing just one month after its previous signal, raising concerns that a stock market downturn could be coming.
The indicator compares the percentage of stock reaching new 52-week highs and lows to a specific threshold. When the number of stocks hitting both extremes surpasses a certain level, the indicator is said to be triggered, suggesting an increased risk of a crash.
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