Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above its 50-week shifting common for the primary time in 45 weeks, Alex Thorn of Galaxy reported on September 21, 2026, after the cryptocurrency climbed again above $81,000.
The restoration places BTC at a traditionally vital technical stage, though previous cycles provide no assure that the June low will maintain.
Bitcoin Reclaims a Stage That Has Capped Earlier Rallies
Thorn has been monitoring the 50-week shifting common as a ceiling throughout bear markets, and in an August analysis report, he defined that Bitcoin had repeatedly struggled to regain the road throughout earlier downturns.
Now, he’s saying that the resistance has lastly given approach.
“BTC CLOSES WEEK ABOVE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS,” he wrote. “Regaining the 50w MA has traditionally served as sturdy affirmation that bear market lows are ‘in.'”
The historic document is notable, but it surely comes with a qualification. Thorn’s examine discovered that in 4 of the 5 accomplished bear markets that misplaced the 50-week common, the primary weekly shut again above it was adopted by no decrease low. The exception was the 2021-2022 downturn, when BTC briefly reclaimed the common twice earlier than falling additional.
However in line with the analyst, the current downturn stays provisional, and a single weekly shut above a shifting common can’t set up {that a} new bull market is underway.
Nonetheless, fellow market watcher Joe Consorti supplied a extra bullish interpretation, writing {that a} shut above the common had traditionally carried a 75% likelihood of marking cycle lows, rising to 100% should you exclude the Covid crash.
“The bear is slain. Welcome (tentatively) to the bull market,” he posted on X.
The place BTC Is At At the moment
Bitcoin’s newest value information places it above $81,000, up about 1% in 24 hours and almost 5% over seven days. The month-to-month acquire is about 4%, whereas BTC stays almost 30% decrease over the previous 12 months and 35% under its October 2025 all-time excessive.
The transfer follows a turbulent week, with the OG crypto falling towards $75,000 after the US Senate didn’t advance the CLARITY Act, earlier than recovering regardless of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike to three.75%-4% and a Financial institution of Japan improve to 1.25%, which marked a 31-year excessive.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan famous that the value had climbed whilst prediction markets minimize the chances of CLARITY shifting ahead. The rebound additionally introduced renewed consideration to the $82,000 space, the place BTC’s advance stalled over the weekend.
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