Matt Hougan, chief funding officer at Bitwise, has pushed again on claims that buying and selling agency Jane Road is behind Bitcoin’s latest slide, writing on X on February 26 that the downturn is “a traditional crypto winter,” not a coordinated assault.
His feedback come as lawsuits and viral threads revive previous fears about market manipulation simply as Bitcoin is buying and selling over 46% beneath its all-time excessive.
Conspiracy Claims Collide With ETF Mechanics
Hypothesis intensified after stories emerged that Terraform Labs’ chapter administrator had sued Jane Road in a Manhattan federal court docket, accusing the agency of utilizing insider info earlier than the Could 2022 Terra-Luna collapse.
In line with the criticism, Jane Road withdrew 85 million TerraUSD from Curve’s 3pool minutes after Terraform eliminated 150 million UST, a sequence the go well with claims accelerated the $40 billion collapse. Jane Road has denied the allegations, calling the case a “determined try” to recuperate losses and blaming Terraform’s administration for the failure.
On the identical time, some crypto analysts, together with Bull Principle, alleged that Jane Road runs a “10 AM” promote algorithm to push Bitcoin decrease and revenue from derivatives.
Bull Principle additionally pointed to an interim order from India’s Securities and Change Board accusing Jane Road entities of expiry-day index manipulation between January 2023 and March 2025, alleging hundreds of crores in illegal positive aspects. The case is ongoing, and the agency has appealed.
Nevertheless, Hougan dismissed the narrative as misplaced. “The conspiracy theories are wild,” he wrote, arguing that Bitcoin is down as a result of traders unwound lengthy positions, diminished leverage, and rotated capital elsewhere.
The Bitwise CIO additionally amplified colleague André Dragosch’s evaluation of intraday Bitcoin efficiency because the ETF launch in January 2024. Dragosch’s information countered the viral 10 AM slam narrative by displaying pronounced weak point round midnight ET, pointing to non-U.S. buying and selling hours because the precise vulnerability interval.
Macro strategist Alex Krüger additionally echoed Hougan’s skepticism, calling the Jane Road principle “one more viral and flawed conspiracy principle.” He famous that foundation merchants and licensed contributors (APs) merely shut gaps between ETFs, futures, and spot markets.
“Too many doomer narratives and conspiracy theories on the lookout for villains circulating proper now,” Krüger posted. “Traditionally, that’s the form of sentiment you see at bottoms.”
Structural Questions Linger Past the Blame
The controversy has additionally revived debate about ETF plumbing. ProCap CIO Jeff Park wrote on February 25 that considerations are much less a few single agency and extra about how APs function underneath regulatory exemptions that permit in-kind creations and redemptions.
In principle, APs can hedge ETF publicity with futures as an alternative of shopping for spot Bitcoin immediately, which critics argue might boring spot demand.
Not one of the lawsuits or regulatory filings up to now set up coordinated misconduct in Bitcoin markets. Nonetheless, the overlap between giant quantitative companies, derivatives methods, and ETF mechanics has fueled suspicion throughout a downturn.
For Hougan, the reason is less complicated. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, leverage resets, and shifting investor priorities are sufficient to clarify the pullback.
“It is a traditional crypto winter and there will probably be a traditional crypto spring,” he wrote. “Folks need somebody accountable — I get it — however the actuality is way extra boring than that.”
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