There will be a new president in the White House this week, and the victor will have a huge impact on the crypto landscape in the United States over the next few years.
“Regardless of who wins, we should see elevated volatility in the coming days,” commented the Kobeissi Letter.
Meanwhile, industry experts and analysts have been airing their thoughts over the weekend.
Up or Down After Election?
Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards opined that he didn’t think there would be much of a dip if Kamala Harris wins.
“There would be an initial shock, unwind of Trump trades, volume trades, and a nuke within our current range,” he said before adding that there have been 8 months of consolidation, bullish ETFs, and a lot of selling pressure.
“Market is currently pricing in compression of odds into election day. After a post-election leverage unwind, who will be selling?”
Meanwhile, analyst Miles Deutscher said that it “feels like the market is scared of a Kamala win and is de-risking ahead of the election.” He added that markets hate uncertainty, and a 50/50 race is the definition of that word.
“If Trump wins, I think this de-risk increases the bull case and conversely subdues the bear case (Kamala).”
Daan Crypto Trades told his 390,000 X followers on Nov. 4 that there is a “good probability” that BTC prices will see “at least a 10% move to either direction depending on who ends up winning the election this week.” This could result in a dump below $60,000 or a surge to a new all-time high.
Bitcoin pioneer Anthony Pompliano held a poll with the majority of the 16,000 voters thinking Donald Trump will win. However, the results are skewed due to the majority of his followers being into crypto.
Investor and tech entrepreneur Mike Alfred observed that in every previous cycle, Bitcoin has made a low price the week of the US election that has never been revisited again.
“This week will literally be the last time you can ever buy Bitcoin below $70,000.”
Trump Leads at The Polls
The latest Polymarket poll has Trump leading in four of the six key swing states which could influence the final outcome of the election.
Overall, the blockchain betting platform has Trump leading with a 54.8% chance, while Harris has 45.1% for the national polls.
Latest Swing State Odds (% chance of winning)
Arizona • Trump 76% – Harris 24%
Georgia • Trump 64% – Harris 36%
Nevada • Trump 59% – Harris 41%
Pennsylvania • Trump 54% – Harris 46%
Wisconsin • Harris 58% – Trump 42%
Michigan • Harris 59% – Trump 41% pic.twitter.com/ol96h8NMAP— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 4, 2024
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