Bitcoin’s slide to round $57,700 on the finish of June might have accomplished the worst part of its 2026 bear market, in line with a brand new market replace printed by BIT on July 17.
After appropriately anticipating a lot of BTC’s decline in the previous couple of months, the crypto funding agency now says merchants ought to assess whether or not that low marked the top of the correction or was merely a pause earlier than one other leg down.
Market Has Largely Adopted Earlier Roadmap
BIT’s newest report builds on analysis it printed on June 12, when it argued that Bitcoin had entered the ultimate stage of its bear market. On the time, the agency outlined an Elliott Wave A-B-C correction sample working from October 2025 that confirmed an preliminary selloff into the $60,000 to $69,000 vary and a rebound towards $80,000 to $90,000, adopted by a ultimate Wave C drop in the course of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is because of finish on July 19.
That forecast has principally performed out, with BTC first plunging from round $97,000 to $62,900 in February this yr earlier than it recovered to about $82,000 in Might, an occasion that was described within the report as a “counter-trend rally inside a bear market.” It then went decrease and finally hit $57,700 on the finish of June after geopolitical tensions and altering expectations for US financial coverage weighed closely on danger property.
Within the July 17 replace, BIT acknowledged that it underestimated the influence of the battle between america and Iran, which pushed inflation larger than anticipated, and the hawkish stance adopted by the brand new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh. Even so, the agency stated that the broader value construction intently matched its authentic outlook.
The sooner report had additionally pointed to a number of technical indicators supporting the potential of a market backside, together with traditionally depressed sentiment and oversold stochastic readings. Moreover, on the time, BTC had been buying and selling effectively under its weekly shifting common. The brand new replace has now shifted consideration to the 21-week shifting common, which it described as an vital gauge for figuring out whether or not the market has transitioned again right into a longer-term uptrend.
Not Everybody Thinks the Identical
Nonetheless, not everybody studying the charts sees a backside forming. Take, as an illustration, CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech, who wrote in a word aptly titled “You actually assume the underside is already in?” that spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which have been one of many greatest drivers behind the OG crypto’s rally within the final two years, have dropped notably in 2026.
In 2024, cumulative internet inflows have been greater than 500,000 BTC, with 2025 recording equally sturdy inflows of about 250,000 BTC. Nonetheless, 2026 has seen the funds bleed out roughly 120,000 BTC, main the analyst to ask:
“If ETF demand drove the rally up, how will you be bullish whereas that demand reversed fully?”
In line with them, what the market is seeing is a headwind and never a tailwind.
Earlier this week, Bitcoin discovered itself above the $65,000 degree after US CPI numbers got here again a lot decrease than the market had anticipated, however these good points have been rapidly taken away by sellers, and on the time of writing, the asset was buying and selling close to $63,000, down virtually 3% in 24 hours and about 2% throughout one week. Moreover, it’s over 50% under its all-time excessive.
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