BTC Pushes Previous $117K Liquidity Wall After $429M ETF Inflows – Bullish Breakout or Bear Lure?

Bitcoin (BTC) has pushed via the $117,000 liquidity wall, climbing near $118,000 as renewed power from U.S. spot ETF inflows places the bulls again in management.

Information from SoSoValue reveals ETFs recorded $429.9 million in internet inflows on September 30, marking the second consecutive day of beneficial properties and driving October’s early momentum.

BlackRock’s IBIT led with $199.43 million, adopted by Ark Make investments’s ARKB at $105.74 million and Constancy’s FBTC with $54.7 million, bringing the full worth traded to $3.26 billion.

Bitcoin $116K Push Paints a “Squeeze Fakeout” as Analysts Warn of CME Hole and Bearish Reversal

Merchants are actually carefully watching two key liquidity clusters, one decrease close to $107K, the place billions of {dollars} in lengthy positions may nonetheless be liquidated, and one other increased round $118K, the place shorts might be pressured to cowl.

Crypto dealer TradeWithThanos argues that the current pump to $116K was designed to spark euphoria, setting a brand new month-to-month excessive earlier than promoting off to shut the CME hole.

He expects resistance between $117,500 and $119,000, with a possible transfer decrease towards the $111K–$112K vary, the place liquidity and an unfilled CME hole stay.

One other analyst described the transfer as a “squeeze fakeout” on the day by day timeframe, the place a breakout with sturdy quantity rapidly reverses, trapping merchants earlier than establishing a brand new pattern.

Within the quick time period, skilled dealer Ezy Bitcoin identified the significance of CME futures gaps.

Utilizing the CrossX indicator, he famous that gaps stay under $112K and emphasised that each hole prior to now 5 months has been crammed.

“So, if we get a small pullback right here, I see it as a strong alternative to build up extra earlier than the following massive transfer,” he mentioned.

This view means that whereas a correction could come first, the following upward leg might be far stronger, with Fibonacci projections pointing as excessive as $155,000.

Bitcoin “Uptober” Impact Reveals Why October’s +29.9% Common Return Nonetheless Issues

On the macro and seasonal entrance, CryptoQuant factors to the well-known “Uptober” impact.

Information from CryptoQuant reveals that August and September are likely to put up flat or adverse returns (−0.54% and −4.16% on common), whereas October (+29.9%), November (+37.5%), and December persistently ship outsized beneficial properties.

The MVRV ratio, which tracks how far BTC’s market worth has diverged from its common on-chain value foundation, additionally helps this bullish narrative.

Traditionally, MVRV hovers close to 1.8 many of the yr, however climbs above 1.9 in October and approaches 2.0 by December, reflecting stronger demand and investor profitability.

CryptoQuant describes the present atmosphere because the “calm earlier than the moon,” with consolidation probably giving technique to aggressive upside.

Even when Bitcoin retests the $111K–$112K zone, analysts say it may type the bottom for a stronger rally into the year-end.

Additional supporting this thesis, Lookonchain famous that Bitcoin closed September with a 5.35% achieve, which is traditionally a precursor to bullish Octobers.

In the meantime, Glassnode’s Quick-Time period Holder Price Foundation Mannequin locations the common current entry worth at $102,900, properly under present ranges, suggesting the rally has room to increase earlier than merchants change into overheated.

Glassnode identifies $122,000 as the primary “heated zone” the place profit-taking may intensify, and $138,000 because the “overheated zone,” a stage usually related to cycle peaks.

Elliott Wave Outlines Bitcoin’s Path Towards $125K Earlier than $150K Goal

On the technical entrance, the day by day chart reveals an Elliott Wave construction mixed with key assist and resistance zones following the transfer above $116K.

The “Vital Demand Zone” round $96,000–$98,000 fashioned the inspiration for the present rally, whereas the “Vital Bullish Assist Stage” close to $106,000 has acted as a defensive position for sustaining momentum.

The “Robust Provide Zone” between $106,000 and $108,000, as soon as a serious supply of promoting strain, has additionally been reclaimed.

Elliott Wave counts recommend Bitcoin has accomplished waves A, B, and C in a corrective section, adopted by an impulsive five-wave advance.

If this construction holds, BTC may see corrective motion within the $120,000–$125,000 vary earlier than testing whether or not adequate demand exists to increase towards $145,000–$150,000.

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