Maelstrom Fund CIO Arthur Hayes has warned that Bitcoin could fall again to $100,000 amid a wave of macroeconomic headwinds, revealing that he has already trimmed his crypto holdings in anticipation.
Key Takeaways:
- Arthur Hayes warns Bitcoin may drop to $100K because of weak job knowledge and slowing credit score development.
- He has already bought over $13 million in crypto and shifted most of his holdings into USDC.
- His outlook contrasts with rising market optimism that conventional Bitcoin cycles are fading.
In a publish on X, Hayes responded to on-chain knowledge from Lookonchain exhibiting that he had not too long ago bought off $8.32 million value of ETH, $4.62 million in Ethena (ENA), and $414,700 of the meme token Pepe (PEPE).
The tackle tied to Hayes now holds $28.3 million in tokens, with $22.95 million sitting in USDC, in line with Arkham Intelligence.
Arthur Hayes Flags Weak Jobs Knowledge and Sluggish Credit score as Bitcoin Crimson Flags
Hayes cited weak U.S. job knowledge and sluggish credit score development in main economies as crimson flags.
The July Non-Farm Payrolls report confirmed simply 73,000 new jobs, far under expectations, and stoked renewed fears of tariffs and slowing nominal GDP development.
These components, Hayes argued, may weigh on threat property like Bitcoin and Ether, probably pushing them towards the $100,000 and $3,000 ranges, respectively.
Bitcoin has already slipped greater than 7% from its all-time excessive of $123,000 set on July 14, whereas Ether is down over 12% since briefly crossing $3,900 on the finish of July.
A drop to $100,000 would mark an 18.7% correction from the height.
Y? US Tariff invoice coming due in 3q … at the very least the mrkt believes that after NFP print. No main econ is creating sufficient credit score quick sufficient to spice up nominal gdp. So $BTC assessments $100k, $ETH assessments $3k. Come see my @WebX_Asia Tokyo keynote Aug 25 for more information. Again to the seashore. https://t.co/zuHlwgQKC7
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) August 2, 2025
Hayes’ warning contrasts with a rising narrative that Bitcoin’s worst pullbacks could also be behind it.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas not too long ago highlighted the asset’s decreased volatility since BlackRock’s ETF submitting in mid-2023.
Blockware Options’ Mitchell Askew echoed that sentiment, saying the period of “parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets” could also be over.
“Bitcoin cycles, as we all know them, are lifeless,” Eli Nagar, CEO of Bitcoin mining pool Braiins Mining, wrote on X.
“You possibly can’t evaluate this section to those that got here earlier than. Not in scale. Not in construction. Not in what’s at stake,” he added.
Bitcoin cycles, as we all know them, are lifeless.
You possibly can't evaluate this section to those that got here earlier than.
Not in scale.
Not in construction.
Not in what’s at stake.
What we’re seeing now isn’t a response to provide, however how bitcoin being absorbed into the system.
It flows by means of…— Eli Nagar (@EliNagarBrr) August 2, 2025
Crypto Bull Market Holds, However Momentum Exhibits Indicators of Pressure
Bitcoin is buying and selling close to $113,000 amid slowing worth motion, sparking debate over whether or not the present bull market is peaking or just consolidating.
Ethereum, against this, surged over 50% in July and is holding above $3,450, pushed largely by ETF inflows and robust institutional demand.
Regardless of headline beneficial properties, the Altcoin Season Index stays low at 36, indicating that capital is concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with little motion throughout mid-cap tokens.
Analysts say broader altcoin participation is often wanted to verify a full market cycle. Bitcoin dominance stays above 60%, limiting the rally’s depth.
Institutional exercise continues to assist the market. Company treasuries have allotted over $86 billion to crypto in 2025, and JPMorgan estimates greater than $60 billion in new capital has entered the house this 12 months.
Crypto inflows hit $60 billion in 12 months. JPMorgan's evaluation revealed this quantity surpasses investments made into non-public fairness throughout the identical timeframe. What does this shift imply for conventional finance?
Supply: CoinDesk, July 2025 pic.twitter.com/9bshCvaGFR— American Bitcoin (@AmericanBTC) July 25, 2025
Ethereum has been a serious beneficiary, with excessive day by day buying and selling volumes and rising curiosity from giant traders.
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