Bitcoin may dip to $90,000 earlier than climbing to new highs, in response to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who sees a short correction forward of a contemporary rally powered by US bank-issued stablecoins.
In a Thursday weblog put up, Hayes outlined a situation the place central financial institution coverage and Wall Road incentives converge to push trillions of {dollars} into digital property.
Arthur Hayes argues that the market has not but priced within the transformative affect of absolutely regulated, dollar-backed stablecoins issued by too-big-to-fail banks like JPMorgan.
These cash, he suggests, won’t simply rival current gamers similar to Tether or Circle’s USDC, however will grow to be crucial instruments for absorbing financial institution reserves and retail deposits now stranded in low-yield accounts.
"Quid Professional Stablecoin" is a dialogue on how US banks adopting stablecoins can present $6.8 trillion of shopping for energy for The BBC's shitty treasuries.https://t.co/QHqgZAPv0J pic.twitter.com/pcejYZ8Urx
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) July 3, 2025
Stablecoins May Gasoline Subsequent Rally, However Hayes Warns of Brief-Time period Dip
Hayes argues that the launch of such stablecoins would successfully operate as a brand new type of liquidity injection, related in affect to quantitative easing, with out requiring formal Fed motion.
By enabling banks to funnel retail cash into short-term Treasury payments with out triggering capital rule penalties, these tokens would unlock a brand new wave of liquidity for threat property like Bitcoin and tech shares.
However earlier than that occurs, Hayes sees a interval of volatility. Citing historic cycles and market sentiment, he predicts that Bitcoin might fall to $90,000 as speculators take earnings and merchants look ahead to clearer alerts from the Federal Reserve.
Nonetheless, he stays bullish over the long run, noting that after Wall Road strikes in with tokenized {dollars}, capital flows will speed up.
With GENIUS Act Handed, Hayes Sees Stablecoins Giving Banks a Market Edge
The forecast comes as stablecoins return to the highlight, with US lawmakers advancing bipartisan proposals that might give federal approval to banks issuing tokenized {dollars}.
Final month, the US Senate handed the long-anticipated GENIUS Act with broad bipartisan backing, marking probably the most complete crypto laws thus far.
Authorized by a 68–30 vote, it represents the Senate’s first transfer towards a devoted regulatory framework for stablecoins, one of many fastest-growing segments within the digital asset area.
Hayes believes that this regulatory course palms legacy banks a strategic edge. Not solely do they have already got huge retail networks and regulatory compliance buildings, additionally they have direct entry to the Federal Reserve. This makes it simpler for them to revenue from turning deposits into short-term Treasuries by means of stablecoin issuance.
He estimates that if banks shift even a part of their $17t in deposits into stablecoin merchandise, it may create $6.8t in new demand for US authorities debt. Mixed with modifications in how the Fed pays curiosity on reserves, that shift may flood markets with contemporary liquidity, fuelling asset inflation throughout crypto and equities alike.
Till then, Hayes sees the approaching dip as a shopping for alternative. He believes that after USD-backed stablecoins from main banks enter the market, they may unlock a wave of liquidity that might ship Bitcoin and different threat property sharply increased. In his view, the arrival of those tokens will mark the beginning of a brand new section available in the market cycle.
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