Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee believes hopes of a Trump election victory in November could boost asset prices – and that includes Bitcoin.
“When the market becomes more convinced of that, you’ll see cyclicals, small caps, and bitcoin do better,” he told CNBC on Thursday, “because those are clear policy differences.”
The Bitcoin Trump Trade
According to Lee, the market currently believes that Trump has a higher likelihood of winning than the polls are showing, and it views this as a good thing.
FiveThirtyEight currently has Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris 3.4% ahead of Trump in national polls. By contrast, crypto bettors on Polymarket – now the world’s largest election prediction pool – have Trump as a 52% favorite to win.
Trump’s policy differences are widely viewed as being favorable to markets. These include promises to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% (versus Harris’s 28% proposal) and promises to protect Bitcoin in America while establishing a national strategic Bitcoin stockpile.
Trump’s betting odds specifically flipped favorable this week as rumors emerged the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – the most popular independent Presidential candidate – would drop out of the race to endorse Trump by the end of the week. Bitcoin’s price surged 4% in response.
“To me over the last couple of days, it seems like the market is betting on Trump’s odds being better than the polls,” he said.
Lee said that the markets showed “a lot of resilience” following Black Monday earlier this month, when Bitcoin briefly fell to $50,000 despite macroeconomic scares out of Japan. Regardless, he believes the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” on interest rates cuts, and that more aggressive cutting going forwards “would actually make sense.”
Bitcoin To $100,000, Says Anthony Scaramucci
Following Lee’s interview, Skybridge Capital co-founder Anthony Scaramucci said he still remains bullish on Bitcoin reaching $100,000, albeit later than he once predicted.
Despite regulatory headwinds for crypto in previous years, payment rail systems built on Layer 1 crypto technologies will “advance our economies” and “reduce costs” on transactions globally.
“The regulatory clearance of the ETF made it safe to go into Bitcoin, for lots of institutional investors,” he added, noting Morgan Stanley’s newfound openness to the products. “That’s paving the way and making it more acceptable.”
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