Bitcoin’s (BTC) extended downturn during the last two months has raised hypothesis in regards to the finish of the bull cycle and the onset of a bear market. Whereas a number of market analysts proceed to foretell the cryptocurrency’s short-term value trajectory, solely on-chain knowledge and metrics can paint a transparent image.
A weekly report from the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant says the Bitcoin Bull Rating Mannequin can inform if this drawdown is a brief correction or the beginning of a protracted downturn. Sadly, this metric doesn’t paint a bullish state of affairs for BTC.
The Bull Rating Mannequin
In keeping with CryptoQuant, the Bull Rating Mannequin assesses the funding surroundings for BTC by evaluating 9 on-chain indicators and one market metric. Every metric acts as a binary indicator of market circumstances and is assigned a price of 1 (bullish) or 0 (bearish) based mostly on guidelines that consider community exercise, market liquidity, demand, and investor habits.
The metrics embrace the Market Worth to Realized Worth (MVRV) Ratio, the Bitcoin Revenue and Loss Index, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, and the Inter-Trade Move Pulse (IFP). The Bitcoin Bull Rating Mannequin additionally contains indicators just like the CryptoQuant Community Exercise Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Development, Dealer On-chain Revenue Margin, Dealer Realized Worth, and Technical Sign.
At the moment, solely two out of the ten metrics – Stablecoin Liquidity and Technical Sign – are flashing bullish alerts, signifying a predominantly bearish market. CryptoQuant mentioned such circumstances reveal an absence of sturdy fundamentals to help and maintain a value rally or restoration.
“We are able to observe that the metrics have switched between bullish and bearish phases a number of instances, with prolonged durations of inexperienced indicating sturdy bullish cycles and extended stretches of pink akin to market circumstances. Just lately, a big variety of metrics have turned pink, significantly since mid-February 2025,” the market analytics platform added.
Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle is Over
Some metrics, just like the Community Exercise Index, have been bearish since December 2024, signaling a sustained discount in community exercise. Total, these metrics are at their least bullish state since January 2023.
The Bull Rating Mannequin measures the share of bullish metrics from 0 to 100, with the previous being bearish and the latter being bullish. Throughout previous bull markets, BTC has skilled sturdy rallies with the Bull Rating at 60 and above. Nevertheless, at any time when the Bull Rating falls under 40, the cryptocurrency has witnessed extended downturns aligned with bear markets.
Bitcoin’s Bull Rating is presently at 20 – its lowest stage since January 2023 – signaling a weak funding surroundings and low probabilities of a sustained rally within the close to time period.
The put up Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Over? This Important Metric Says It May Be appeared first on CryptoPotato.