Bitcoin (BTC) is still far from the overvalued levels that indicate the end of a bull cycle despite having rallied above $99,000 last week.
According to on-chain data analyzed by CryptoQuant, the cryptocurrency can still surge past $100,000 to $146,000, the top target from a realized price valuation perspective. This perspective indicated the top price for BTC in previous cycles, including the rally witnessed in April-May 2021.
No Signs of a Bitcoin Market Top Yet
Bitcoin valuation metrics strongly signal that the cryptocurrency is still in a bull market and has not entered overheated levels yet. One indicator is the CryptoQuant Profit and Loss index, which hovers above its 365-day moving average.
Another metric is the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which remains in the bull area and has been increasing since early November, a sign that the bull phase is intensifying. Like the Profit and Loss index, this one is also far from the overheated bull phase area, which it entered when BTC hit an all-time high of $73,000 in March 2024.
Furthermore, the value of BTC held by new investors is not yet at extreme levels. This condition has preceded the past two cycle tops.
At the time of writing, the value of the BTC held by this cohort of investors hovers around 50% of the total money invested in the cryptocurrency. In previous cycles, this figure has surged above 90% and 80%, after which BTC has topped and begun to retrace.
Retail Activity Remains Absent
There is also a lack of high retail activity on the Bitcoin network. Retail activity on Bitcoin usually spikes, with BTC investors buying aggressively, when the cryptocurrency is near a cycle top and the bull phase is about to end.
However, the opposite is the case right now, as retail investors have been reducing their holdings since October. Retail investors have offloaded 41,000 BTC since last month, while large investors have increased their holdings by 130,000 BTC.
Meanwhile, the only metric that appears to be signaling a short-term price correction for BTC is MSTR, the stock of the business intelligence firm MicroStrategy, which is also the largest public holder of bitcoin. MSTR overheated and has fallen roughly 30% this week.
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